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In past articles, historical data has been presented regarding various aspects of the draft. With the NFL draft rapidly approaching, this article will explore the use of that historical data to formulate a draft day strategy. While past performance cannot always predict the future, it at least serves as a basis for projection. This article will provide a look at what to expect on draft day.
In today’s Draftmetrics email:
We take a look at what can be expected on draft day.
Put the draft into the proper perspective.
Review differences among draft years.
Ric and Baldy tonight at 8:00 PM EST on Twitter Spaces NFLDraftBible.
Have a question about Draftmetrics, to ask Baldy, or to advertise in the AAF newsletter? Email me at ric@nfldraftbible.com
The Draft is just around the corner and today we take a look at what can be expected on draft day?
Plenty of trades
Going into the draft, there have already been a number of trades affecting draft position. Several of those (trades for Matthew Stafford, DeShaun Watson, Russell Wilson, etc.) are payment for 2022 trades. History tells us to expect more than 30 trades during the draft. Here is trade activity for the past five years.
In 2022, only four teams (49ers, Cowboys, Dolphins and Steelers) did not participate in a draft day trade. The Vikings participated in the most trades with six; five teams (Bears, Bills, Bucs, Eagles, Raiders) participated in four trades.
Lots of linemen and defensive backs will be drafted
Mock drafts are in abundance as well as ratings of the top prospects at each position. How far down the position rankings do you have to read? Based on actual selections from 2012 through 2022 and considering the number of draft selections in each round, the following table lays out the number of players expected to be selected at each position and in each round.
Teams with more early draft selections should do the best (duh)
Three teams (Lions, Seahawks and Texans) have three selections in the first 20 picks. Those teams rank one through three in terms of number of Major Contributors (MCs) expected. MCs are players who participate in at least 500 scrimmage snaps for at least three seasons. The average per team is 2.51. Here is the ranking of NFL teams in order of number of projected MCs, based on historical results.
The following table is an alphabetic list of the teams and their selections (as of this date this article was written) by round as well at the projected Major Contributors based on historical averages.
Draftnick Ric’s 2023 Final NFL Draft Top 100 Rankings
For this particular Top 100 list, our staff has compiled rankings based on the players who we believe will be chosen within the first 100 selections. It’s a great exercise that we participate in each year as part of ‘The Huddle Report’ contest. Every year since 2001, The Huddle Report scores the Top 100 boards and mock drafts of the most reputable and widely-published draft resources.
Join Draftnick Ric and Baldy tonight at 8:00 PM EST on Twitter Spaces NFLDraftBible
Ric Serritella’s 2023 NFL DRAFT TOP 100
1. DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
2. RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
3. QB Bryce Young, Alabama
4. LB Will Anderson Jr., Alabama
5. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
6. QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State
7. DE Myles Murphy, Clemson
8. OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
9. DE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
10. DE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
11. CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State
12. CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
13. OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State
14. OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
15. OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee
16. SS Brian Branch, Alabama
17. DT Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh
18. LB Nolan Smith, Georgia
19. CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
20. TE Michael, Mayer, Notre Dame
21. OG O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida
22. QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
23. OT Dawand Jones, Ohio State
24. CB Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State
25. TE Darnell Washington, Georgia
26. FS Antonio Johnson Texas A&M
27. RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
28. DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson
29. WR Jordan Addison, USC
30. C John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota
31. DE Will McDonald IV, Iowa State
32. TE Luke Musgrave, Oregon State
33. OLB BJ Ojulari, LSU
34. CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
35. C Joe Tippmann, Wisconsin
36. WR Zay Flowers, Boston College
37. CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
38. LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson
39. QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
40. DE Keion White, Georgia Tech
41. TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
42. WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
43. LB Drew Sanders, Arkansas
44. DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State
45. OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma
46. DT Mazi Smith, Michigan
47. SS Christopher Smith, Georgia
48. LB Daiyan Henley, Washington State
49. OT Tyler Steen, Alabama
50. WR Tank Dell, Houston
51. SS Sydney Brown, Illinois
52. WR Cedric Tillman, Tennessee
53. QB Will Levis, Kentucky
54. CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
55. OLB Derick Hall, Auburn
56. DE Mike Morris, Michigan
57. OG Cody Mauch, North Dakota State
58. WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
59. DT Tuli Tuipulotu, USC
60. WR Marvin Mims, Oklahoma
61. LB Marte Mapu, Sacramento State
62. CB DJ Turner, Michigan
63. WR Charlie Jones, Purdue
64. DT Siaki Ika, Baylor
65. RB Tyjae Spears, Tulane
66. TE Sam LaPorta, Iowa
67. OG Chandler Zavala, North Carolina State
68. CB Clark Phillips III, Utah
69. OT Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse
70. WR Josh Downs, North Carolina
71. CB Julius Brents, Kansas State
72. DT Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin
73. CB Tyrique Stevenson, Miami
74. C Luke Wypler, Ohio State
75. LB Jack Campbell, Iowa
76. OG Steve Avila, TCU
77. WR Jonathan Mingo, Mississippi
78. CB Riley Moss, Iowa
79. DE Adetomiwa Adebawore, Northwestern
80. CB Darius Rush, South Carolina
81. TE Luke Schoonmaker, Michigan
82. CB Terelll Smith, Minnesota
83. SS Jammie Robinson, Florida State
84. DE Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame
85. RB Devon Achane, Texas A&M
86. FS Jordan Battle, Alabama
87. CB Jartavis Martin, Illinois
88. RB Zach Charbonnet, UCLA
89. LB DeMarvion Overshown, Texas
90. SS Ji’Ayir Brown, Penn State
91. DE Byron Young, Tennessee
92. OT Jaelyn Duncan, Maryland
93. RB Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh
94. DT Jaquelin Roy, LSU
95. TE Tucker Kraft, South Dakota State
96. DE Zach Harrison, Ohio State
97. OT Blake Freeland, BYU
98. CB Kyu Blu Kelly, Stanford
99. QB Jake Haener, Fresno State
CB Garrett Williams, Syracuse
This study by Anthony J Villiotti will:
• Put the draft into the proper perspective
• Examine the outcome of GM’s use of Draft Choices and Exchanging Draft Choices.
• Evaluate the draft performance of NFL Draft Day Strategy
• Review difference among draft years
• Comment on constructing a competitive NFL roster
The 6th Annual ITL Best NFL Draft Award
The Best Draft Award is presented to the NFL organization determined to have selected the most impactful rookie draft class, as chosen by their front office peers.
The winner of the 2022 Best NFL Draft Award goes to John Schneider and the Seattle Seahawks. With quarterback Russell Wilson no longer the face of the franchise, the Seahawks entered the 2022 season with lots of question marks. They needed to retool, and a key part of success would mean adding critical pieces in the draft. Mission accomplished. With their first-round selection, they found a starter at the critical left tackle position in Mississippi State’s Charles Cross.
In the second round, they found a 1,000-yard rusher in Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker and in the third round, they selected a bookend tackle in Washington State’s Abraham Lucas. Cross started 17 games, Lucas started 16, and Walker 11, but that wasn’t all. The team also got multiple starts out of Cincinnati cornerback Coby Bryant, a fourth-round pick, and UTSA corner Tariq Woolen, a fifth-rounder who started 17 games.
Both Walker and Woolen were named to the Pro Football Writers Association All-Rookie team, as Seattle finished 9-8 and clinched a berth in the wildcard round of the playoffs. Congratulations to the Seahawks!
All-Time Award Winners
2022 – John Schenider, Seattle Seahawks
2021 – George Paton, Denver Broncos
2020 – Jason Licht, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019 – John Lynch, San Francisco 49ers
2018 – Chris Ballard, Indianapolis Colts
2017 – Jeff Ireland, New Orleans Saints