Draftmetrics
A NOD TO QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
As stated earlier, this analysis is done strictly on a quantitative basis. For purposes of comparison, All-Pro Selections by the Associated Press over the last 10 years were reviewed to give at least a glimpse into the qualitative analysis. Over the last 10 years, 311 different players have been selected as either the first team or the second team.
The first column in the following tables shows a percentage breakdown of how the 311 players entered the league (e.g., 31, or 10%, of the players were selected in the first five picks in their draft year). The second column reflects the probability of players from our database (selections from 2012-2019) being selected as All-Pros (e.g., 10 of the 40 selections in the first five became All-Pros). The final column is the percentages from our DRAFT OUTCOMES section
Comparing the second and third columns shows the difference between the most stringent metric (All-Pro selection) and the MC metric. The All-Pro metric is too high of a standard as a metric for this analysis as only 6% of players drafted in the study period achieved that level of success. A comparison of the two metrics shows the same general pattern, even the aberration in the top half of the fifth round.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to All Access Football to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.