Draftmetrics
A Quick Draft Wrap-Up
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Draftmetrics - In past articles, historical data has been presented regarding various aspects of the draft. With the 2023 NFL draft now behind us, this article will explore will be in two parts first looking at the 2023 winners and losers and then how the draft unfolded. Wrap-Up by Quantitative Analyst Anthony Villiotti
With more opportunities than ever before to play professional football, including the NFL, CFL, XFL, USFL and ELF, be on the lookout for more free agent CAMP showcases. Future inquiries can be directed to HUB SVP Tom Goodhines at: thgoodhines@gmail.com
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With the draft behind us, this article takes a final look at what just happened. The article first looks at winners and losers and then reviews how the draft unfolded.
Winners and Losers
The draft is a time of unbridled optimism. Every team is convinced the draft fell exactly the way they wanted. Sports writers extol the virtues of a 7th round running back and invoke comparisons to All Pros.
The Eagles are getting plenty of accolades in the national press and my hometown Steelers are getting their fair share as well. The Eagles built on a strong Georgia to Philadelphia pipeline, and even enhanced that by acquiring D’Andre Swift in a draft day trade. They are being lauded for being able to grab Nolan Smith with the 30th selection when many had him pegged to go in the first half of the first round. Similarly, the Steelers are getting praise for latching onto Joey Porter with the first selection of the second round when he was expected to go mid-first round.
Are these true “steals” or were they overrated in the pre-draft forecasts? Time will tell, but teams tend to get rated highly when they select players the public expected to be picked earlier.
In reality it will take time to know the true winners in the 2023 draft. Injuries will happen, some players will have off-field issues and others will be outright busts, but right now all is sunshine and blue skies. This article looks at the draft through the lens of probabilities with no allowance for the number or location of selections. This takes the view that whoever ends up with most Major Contributors (players who play at least 500 snaps for at least three seasons) had the best draft. Admittedly, this approach, has limitations as it assumes that all Major Contributors (MCs) are equal, whether the scrimmage snaps are by a tight end or a franchise quarterback.
A team’s expected number of MCs is a function of when draft choices are made and what playing positions are drafted. This recognizes that, historically, some positions are riskier to draft than others in each stage of the draft.
Based on historical averages, it is expected that 78 MCs will come out of the 2023 draft. That computes to an average of 2.44 per team. Draft grades were assigned using that average as a baseline. The grades are described as follows:
The following table lists the grade of each team in order of their expected MCs.
Actual results tend to vary significantly from the averages. Looking at the 2016 through 2020 drafts (it is too soon to evaluate the 2021 and 2022 drafts), the number of total MCs varied from 63 (2020) to 91 (2016). Individual teams in those years varied from no MCs to a high of seven (Saints in 2017 and Ravens in 2018).
Here is a summary of MCs by year and team.
The distribution of the 160 possible outcomes (32 teams times 5 years) is as follow:
This shows that a team will have either two or three MCs almost 60% of the time.
How the Draft Unfolded
For all the talk of certain positions being deeper than others, the draft unfolded pretty much as expected. The number of trades was dizzying. Only 16 of the 31 first round selections were made by the team that was the original owner of that draft slot.
Following is a comparison of the number of players drafted by position in 2023 and the average number from 2012 through 2022.
There are a few things worth pointing out.
A few more quarterbacks than usual were taken in the 4th and 5th rounds (7 vs. average of 3)
The selection of two running backs in the first twelve picks has happened only one other time (2017) during the 2012 through 2023 drafts. In 2017 Leonard Fournette was taken 4th and Christian McCaffrey 8th.
A higher than usual number of tight ends were selected in the 2nd round (5 vs average of 2) and none were taken in the 4th or 6th rounds.
An unusually low number of offensive linemen were taken in the 3rd round (2 vs average of 7), followed by a run on offensive linemen in the 4th round (10 vs average of 6)
More linebackers than usual were taken in the 5th and 6th rounds (15 vs average of 12), offset by fewer than usual (3 vs average of 6) in the 7th round.
Fewer defensive backs were taken in the first three rounds (17 vs average of 21) with more taken in the 4th through 7th rounds (38 vs average of 31)
The number of 1st round DBs (4) was lower than all but one year (2019) in the 2012-2023 period. Three were selected in 2019.
Ric and Zack were on location for the HUB Football CAMP in San Diego, held on April 16th. Here are the top ten standouts from the workout.
SAN DIEGO – NFL Draft Bible reporting on location for the HUB Football CAMP. It was a high quality workout with 42 pro-caliber free agents in attendance. Led by former NFL executive Mike Williams and current HUB GM, players received great coaching instruction from some of the legends of the game. The HUB staff featured Super Bowl champion Az-Zahir Hakim, former Hawaii head coach Norm Chow, two-time World Bowl champion Lance Zeno, along with numerous other former NFL players and coaches. Below are the top 10 standouts from the HUB Football CAMP on April 16th, 2023.
With more opportunities than ever before to play professional football, including the NFL, CFL, XFL, USFL and ELF, be on the lookout for more free agent CAMP showcases. Future inquiries can be directed to HUB SVP Tom Goodhines at: thgoodhines@gmail.com
#33 ZACH SMITH | QB | Tulsa | 6-3 | 229 | Agent: Bus Cook
The howitzer of an arm that Smith owns was on full display at ‘The CAMP.’ The former New Orleans Breakers signal-caller looked entirely healthy, demonstrating great ball velocity and the confidence to zip the ball into tight windows. In addition, his deep ball accuracy was on point, as he can air it out 70-plus yards through the air! A mature leader who prepares like a pro, Smith understands what needs to be done on his road back to joining an organization. A 90-man roster candidate, Smith could certainly provide immediate QB insurance in the USFL.
#39 QUINCY WIMBISH | RB | West Liberty | 5-10 | 200 | Agent: Darian Yahyavi
A diamond in the rough prospect, Wimbish was lost in the fold coming out of West Liberty. After leading the team in rushing in 2019, the COVID19 pandemic cut short his 2020 season to just a few games. His final year in 2021, he suffered a season-ending injury and did not play. A big, strong runner with above average change of direction and movement skills, Wimbish owns a thick frame built to pick up yards after contact. He can tend to run a bit upright at times but with some added development the skill-set is there to be a solid contributor.
#60 JAKE BARGAS | FB | North Carolina | 6-2 | 251 | Agent: Bruce Tollner
With an increased usage of fullbacks in recent seasons, Bargas shouldn’t remain on the street much longer. He has already incurred two years of NFL experience with the Bears, Dolphins and Vikings. While he wasn’t able to put his full blocking prowess on display at HUB, it’s evident the power he owns, especially in the lower body with big, thick quads. Bargas was adequate in bag drills, running alongside the running backs and was a pleasant surprise as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Any team in search of a traditional fullback should give Bargas a call.
#48 ANDREW WOLF | WR | Ohio Dominican | 5-11 | 190 | Agent: Seeking Representation
A 2023 draft-eligible prospect, Wolf possesses an enticing skill-set and is coming off a monster season in which he posted 900 receiving yards, along with 13 touchdowns in 10 games, including a pair of games where he went for 200-plus yards! Wolf participated in the HUB Combine prior to ‘The CAMP’ and tested very well. He ran in the low-to-mid 4.5 range on both attempts, with a 4.20 short shuttle and 7.00 three-cone. Wolf is more quick than fast, displayed excellent route running and the ability to separate. He won the majority of his one-on-one drills, thrived during red zone drills and scrimmages, while seeking out the top corners to matchup against. Wolf projects as a slot/returner type who may have to prove himself up north or in an alternate football league. He should be on the NFL radar.
#51 DARION CLARK | TE | USC | 6-6 | 242 | Agent: Jason Bernstein
An impressive physical specimen with towering size, Clark is a rare athlete who continues to improve. He presents an easy target for quarterbacks with a seven-foot wingspan and 11-inch hands. His athleticism allows him to play above the rim and compete for 50/50 balls. Clark is tough to bring down after the catch and while still raw, he has every trait NFL teams seek at the next level. Clark found his way back into the NFL during his last HUB appearance (Bears) and would appear to be trending back in that direction.
#58 BLAINE HOOVER | OT | Tarleton State | 6-6 | 288 | Agent: Juan Lozano
It was impressive to learn that Hoover did not have any previous experience playing offensive line entering HUB. A former defensive lineman, he flashed quickness and raw strength. He understands that he needs to continue to bulk up and has the frame to do so. This is the prototype developmental player worth stashing on the practice squad, as he gets into a pro strength and conditioning program. Hoover needs to harness his technique and learn the intricates of a new position. However, his combination of size, athleticism and upside as a potential tackle makes him very intriguing.
#57 HENRY HATTIS | OL | Stanford | 6-6 | 282 | Agent: Kenneth Zuncic
This is one of the largest players to pass through the HUB Football CAMP series. The mammoth Hattis stepped in at 6-foot-6, with an 83-inch wingspan and nearly 12-inch mittens. He also recorded a 29-inch vertical and 9-foot-1 broad jump during the combine portion. Hattis possesses a George Foreman like jab that keeps his opponents at bay; he can easily knock defenders off balance. He displayed surprising bend for such a large stature and has the versatility to kick inside if need be. Hattis is completely healed from a previous knee injury, as he continues to add back weight and re-sculpt his body through a strict diet and workout regime.
#17 DEVIN DREW | DL | Nebraska | 6-2 | 298 | Agent: Seeks Representation
With starts at both Nebraska and Texas Tech, you could see the P5 pedigree traits on display during one-on-one matchups. Drew took advantage of his strength and savvy, proving capable of being an interior pass-rush presence. The Kansas City native can also shed blocks well against the run with his advanced hand placement
#23 JAYLIN PARNELL | LB | Western Oregon | 5-10 | 231 | Agent: Dwayne Wilkes
The feisty, undersized Parnell is a true ball-hawk who flies to the football. He was all over the field much like his collegiate career, where he lined up just about everywhere, posting tremendous production. Parnell has dominated the level of competition, has a knack for creating turnovers and is a special teams standout with three blocked kicks for his career. He timed in the mid 4.7 range, with a 30” vertical jump and 9-foot-4 broad jump. Parnell might remind some draftniks of Tavante Beckett (Roughnecks/Marshall).
#12 ZEKIEL BROWN | CB | Baylor | 6-0 | 178 | Agent: Seeks Representation
It was a bit of a roller-coaster ride for Brown at HUB, as he displayed some very good instinctual plays but also paid the price on a few occasions as a result of his aggressive style of play. Brown has excellent length, fluid hips and footwork. He showed the ability to line up outside, inside and can match up against tight ends. Brown needs to do a better job locating the football earlier and more consistently but he is just starting to scratch the surface of his potential. He took well to the coaching of DB coach Derrick Gardner and would benefit from some reps in an alternate league.
nice