DRAFTMETRICS: Grading the General Managers
Who should be considered the top GM when it comes to the draft?
This study by Anthony J Villiotti will:
• Put the draft into the proper perspective
• Examine the outcome of drafts from 2012 through 2020
• Evaluate the draft performance of NFL teams and selected colleges
• Review difference among draft years
• Comment on constructing a competitive NFL roster
If I had to describe the job of an NFL general manager in two words, the words would be roster management. The ultimate test of a general manager, of course, is the won-lost record but roster management is critical to achieving on-field success. There are several sometimes interrelated facets of roster management:
Salary cap management
Free agency, both coming and going
Trades
The draft
This article will look only at one aspect of roster management - - the draft. General manager draft performances will be analyzed and ranked. It is acknowledged that there are variables beyond the control of the GM including (1) the degree of control accorded the GM in the draft process and (2) injuries and off-field issues that affect the outcome of draft selections. There is no way to build those and other variables into this analysis, though, and they will be ignored.
This analysis examines the career outcomes for players drafted between 2012 and 2020 and was limited to the 34 GMs who drafted 30 or more players in that period, excluding special team players. This includes both current and former general managers.
The methodology used was to calculate success rates for each GM. This was done by dividing the number of “successful” draft choices by the total number of draft choices. For example, if a GM had 20 successful draft choices out of 40 selections the success rate would be 50%.
Two criteria were used to define success, with one of the criteria considered the primary measure. The first and primary criteria is the number of Major Contributors drafted. If you have read any of our prior articles, you may remember that a Major Contribution is a player who participated in at least 500 scrimmage snaps for at least three seasons. The second criteria is the number of Contributors drafted. A Contributor is a player who participated in at least 300 scrimmage snaps for at least three seasons. This is, of course, a lower hurdle for defining success.
The results of the analysis are shown in a series of three tables followed by brief commentary on the results shown in the tables. Each table includes:
General manager name
Team or teams
Number of players drafted
Percentage of Major Contributors
Rank among general managers for Major Contributors
Percentage of Contributors
Rank among general managers for Contributors
Why are there three tables and not just one? That will be explained as each of the tables is discussed.
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